A growing disturbance in the Bermuda Triangle will likely become the first named storm of 2020 by the end of this weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
Since first reporting on the storm this past Tuesday, the system has developed a much tighter rotation patter and a more westerly trajectory, with almost half of the forecast models showing a direct impact with the Carolinas.
The NHC has now upgraded the probability of the system becoming a subtropical or tropical storm to 80% (HIGH) within the next 48 hours. If it does develop, they NWS will give the new storm the name ‘Arthur’.
This morning, the National Weather Service issued the following alert:
810 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020
An area of low pressure located just offshore of the southeast coast of Florida continues to produce shower activity and gusty winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida eastward across the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Continued gradual development is expected, and the system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today or tonight while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of Florida. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas.
The official Atlantic Coast hurricane season for 2020 runs from June 1st through November 30th, so if Arthur does develop into a full blown storm, it would be nearly a month early.
NWS officials are reminding all residents in Atlantic Coast states to start preparing for the upcoming hurricane season.
In case of a power outage, make sure to have the following emergency items stocked in your home;
- Car charger for cell phones and other devices
- Clean drinking water (recommended 1 gallon per person per day, minimum three days)
- Flashlights
- Batteries: Extra batteries for all of your devices
- Weather radio/clock
- Non-perishable food
- First aid kit
We will continue to update this article as this storm develops.