Charlotte Housing Monthly Review – October 2017


KEY HIGHLIGHTS. Average Selling Prices for the Charlotte MSA* rose 2.9% year after year after stalling in August and rising in September.  However, the trend month to month continues to trend DOWN as prices fell sequentially again by 1.85% from September making it 3 STRAIGHT months of decelerating pricing trends.  Thus, as mentioned earlier affordability is now weighing on price appreciation.   All other metrics besides price appear very healthy however.

CUMMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET.  This figure now stands at 42 dropping slightly vs September and down from 54 a year ago.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE.  This figure remains below record levels at dropping sequentially to $266,091 vs $270,959  in September.  Prices have fallen 9.1% from their peak in June.  Prices rose 2.9% year over year while the year to date average stood at 5.9% higher vs 2016.  The trend in housing prices appreciating in South Charlotte vs North mitigated again as many areas in North counties rose vs South especially areas like Lake Norman.

CLOSED SALES.  This figure fell 0.4% year over year again while although less so vs the prior month and year to date rose 6.2%.

 PENDING SALES. This figure remained very strong rising 14.1% year over year while year to date rose 6.6%.  Sequentially, they rose slightly from the prior month.

MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF HOMES.  This figure fell slightly from last month at 2.1, but fell year over year by 22.2% from 2.7.  The figure remains near the 2017 low – set in January at 1.9.  Of note areas in northern Charlotte maintain 2-3X higher Months of Supply vs southern regions which explains most of the pricing trends north to south.

COMMENTARY.  The declines in Average Selling Prices from the peak set earlier in the year locally here in Charlotte must be looked at in context of nationwide data.  Further, the month to month declines indicate that as comps get more difficult in 2018 year over year growth could slow.  The recent Mortgage Applications data (see comment on Linkedin) also support a cooling market albeit and market that for sure is starting from very strong levels.  Higher rates explain these trends which impacts affordability.  Home prices outstripping wage growth also has played a role.  Going forward expect prices to appreciate if at all at much slower pace than the past 12 months.  With the Pending Sales data improving its unlikely demand will slow appreciably in coming months.

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Data Source:  Charlotte REALTOR Association. 

*Charlotte MSA is the Charlotte–Concord–Gastonia Metropolitan Statistical Area.