The recent new tariffs—including a 145% duty on Chinese imports—have already pushed retailers like Shein and Temu to raise prices, while major chains like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot are warning of looming supply shortages and higher costs for American shoppers. As retail businesses brace for disruption, many of the fastest-growing areas for brick-and-mortar stores may also be the most vulnerable.
A recent analysis from Printastic spotlights the U.S. cities and states where physical retail is growing (and shrinking) fastest, and which locations could face new headwinds just as in-person shopping was beginning to recover.
Key Takeaways, With Data for Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Retail’s Long Decline—and Fragile Recovery: Over the past 20 years, retail establishment growth (+4.8%) has lagged far behind total U.S. business growth (+49.4%), with major setbacks during the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic.
- Post-Pandemic Gains Face New Threats: From 2020 to 2024, the sector added over 38,000 new stores and 870,000 jobs—the strongest retail expansion in decades—raising the stakes as new tariffs take hold.
- Southeastern and Western States Lead in Retail Growth: States like Idaho (+18.8%), Tennessee (+14.5%), and Georgia (+12.5%) posted the highest retail growth since 2020, while parts of the Northeast and Midwest posted declines.
- Metro-Level Growth Could Stall: In the metros where retail has grown between 2020 and 2024, rising costs could test the durability of those gains—while metros reporting losses may face rising vacancies and an even slower path to recovery if tariffs weaken consumer demand.
- How Retail Has Fared in the Charlotte metro: Between 2020 and 2024, the Charlotte metro gained 793 retail establishments—an increase of 9.8%, the 5th highest of any large metro. Meanwhile, retail employment increased by 12,833 workers (+10.5%) during that span.
