As the 2025 NFL season approaches, bettors and analysts are turning to projections, win totals, and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to gain an edge. Early trends are already shaping expectations—spotlighting breakout teams, flagging possible disappointments, and influencing the betting markets.
From contenders to rebuilds, the data reveals key patterns tied to roster moves, division strength, and historical volatility. As always, a data-driven approach is reshaping how fans and experts anticipate the season ahead.
Elite Tier Emerges, But No Clear Front-Runner
The Philadelphia Eagles enter 2025 as the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LX, but their 12% title probability is the lowest for a preseason favorite in FPI history. This underscores just how narrow the gap is at the top. The Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Lions round out the FPI’s top five, and none are separated by more than a single rating point. That kind of parity suggests no team will dominate this season.
What these five franchises share is elite offensive firepower. Quarterback play, offensive efficiency, and consistent scoring are the driving forces behind their high rankings. In a league increasingly shaped by passing attacks and explosive plays, offense is a more stable predictor than defense, and bettors—especially those on platforms like FanDuel Sportsbook—are beginning to shift focus accordingly.
Interestingly, the Eagles stand out because they pair the league’s best defense with a top-tier offense. Young defenders like Jalen Carter, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean bolster a unit that sets Philly apart in close matchups.
Super Bowl Matchups Show NFC Variety, AFC Concentration
While five teams stand above the rest, the projected Super Bowl matchups reveal interesting imbalances between conferences. The AFC is dominated by three teams in these scenarios—the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens. In contrast, the NFC’s representation is spread across the Eagles, Lions, Rams, Commanders, and 49ers.
The most likely Super Bowl matchup is Eagles vs. Chiefs, with a modest 4% probability. Other top projections involving Philadelphia—against the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills—each range between 3.6% and 4%. These figures suggest that while certain pairings are plausible, the field remains wide open, with no single outcome strongly favored.
Divisions With Betting Value: NFC North and West in Focus
The NFC North might be the most tightly contested division. Detroit is favored to win it at 41%, but Green Bay (25%), Minnesota (19%), and Chicago (15%) all have a puncher’s chance. The Lions’ offensive resurgence continues after a 15-2 campaign, and they top Clay’s projection model at 11.9 wins—the highest in the league. Their win total of 10.5 reflects those expectations.
Meanwhile, the 49ers narrowly edge out the Rams for NFC West division favoritism—36% to 34%—but only due to schedule strength. San Francisco faces a soft slate after finishing last in the division. If key players stay healthy, they could rebound from last year’s 6-11 collapse. Bettors taking futures on bounce-back teams may find value here, especially with the Niners’ 10.5 win total suggesting optimism.
Bills Control the AFC East, But Uncertainty Lurks
Buffalo has the NFL’s highest probability of winning its division—65%—and a consistent track record under head coach Sean McDermott. The Bills have exceeded their preseason win total in all eight seasons since he took over. With an 11.5 over/under win line and an FPI playoff probability of 81%, they are perhaps the safest futures bet on the board.
Still, the rest of the AFC East isn’t completely out of it. While no challenger comes close in FPI projections, the variance of NFL outcomes leaves the door open. The Patriots, for example, enter with a 7.5-win total and have improved from last year’s projection. That may not make them playoff contenders, but it does indicate upward movement—and adds yet another layer to this season’s evolving landscape of NFL team news and analysis.
Bengals and Commanders Pose Risks With Reward
Two teams with notable projection variance are the Bengals and Commanders. Despite missing the playoffs last season, Cincinnati enters 2025 with a 60% playoff probability. A fully healthy Joe Burrow—who ranked third in QBR last year—positions them to challenge Baltimore, which leads the AFC North with a 54% chance to win the division.\
Washington, meanwhile, exploded to a 12-5 record last season after opening with a 6.5-win projection. With Jayden Daniels leading the charge, they’re a prime example of a team that outperformed market expectations. However, FPI places them just sixth overall, and Clay’s model sees regression, projecting only 8.2 wins. This discrepancy may tempt bettors to fade the Commanders in 2025 futures.
Betting Markets Align With FPI on Top Contenders
The four top teams in Super Bowl projections—Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Ravens—all share the highest win totals at 11.5. Historically, teams with totals this high perform well against expectations. For instance, the Chiefs have won 12+ games in six of the past seven years. The Bills have eclipsed their line for eight consecutive seasons, and the Eagles have posted 11+ wins for three straight.
Betting markets have also inflated totals this year: nine teams are pegged at 10.5 wins or higher, the most since the league grew to 32 franchises. While this makes for tighter betting lines, it also offers opportunities to back proven overachievers—or fade those with shallow depth and tougher schedules.
Basement Dwellers: Who’s at Risk for the No. 1 Pick?
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Browns are the FPI’s most likely candidate for the top draft pick in 2026, with a 13% shot. Following a three-win season and a shaky quarterback room, they also hold the league’s lowest win total at 4.5.
The Saints, meanwhile, are ranked dead last by FPI, but a weak NFC South schedule helps their projections. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough leads a team with massive uncertainty, making them an attractive fade option if you’re betting unders.
Other teams with high chances to bottom out include the Giants, Titans, and Jets. Each has quarterback questions and difficult schedules that lower their win expectations.
Smart Angles for 2025 Bettors
Historical trends remain consistent: teams with elite quarterback play and offensive continuity consistently outperform expectations. The Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs are prime examples. In contrast, teams that relied heavily on defense—like the 2024 Vikings—often regress, given the year-to-year volatility of defensive metrics.
Emerging teams such as the Lions and Buccaneers show upward momentum, supported by market optimism and strengthened rosters. Meanwhile, the Chargers and 49ers face high win projections despite injury risks and inconsistency, indicating possible overvaluation.
The 2025 season is expected to be highly competitive. Bettors who emphasize quarterback stability, offensive reliability, and schedule analysis can uncover value that raw projections alone might overlook.
